A black swan event, a term popularized by author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, refers to an unpredictable occurrence that is beyond what is normally expected and has potentially severe consequences. These events are characterized by their extreme rarity, major impact and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.

Supply chains have faced numerous black swan events in recent years, including:

• The COVID-19 pandemic that paralyzed global production and transportation
• The Suez Canal blockage in 2021 that held up $9.6 billion in trade daily
• The 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami that devastated automotive and electronics supply chains
•  Major cyber attacks like NotPetya that crippled global shipping operations
• The Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupting critical energy and food supplies
• The 2008 global financial crisis that collapsed demand and financing
• Extreme weather events like hurricanes and floods that destroyed infrastructure

Today's complex global supply chains face unprecedented challenges from multiple fronts. According to data from risk management experts, major supply chain disruptions have increased in frequency by over 60 percent in the past five years, with the average company experiencing significant disruptions every 3.7 years. In 2022, more than 80 percent of organizations experienced at least one significant supply chain disruption, and 50 percent experienced three or more.

How can businesses face global supply chain crises and prepare for future black swan events that may emerge?

Understanding the full scope of potential risks, identifying possible outcomes and implementing risk management strategies can help organizations feel more confident in their growth and satisfy customer needs despite unpredictable challenges.

Most importantly, acquiring data and modern technological tools can create visibility across the supply chain and, in turn, inform preparation for unexpected events of all kinds.

Supply chains today face a multitude of threats beyond just environmental concerns. Geopolitical tensions, trade wars, cyberattacks and unexpected events like the COVID-19 pandemic have all demonstrated how quickly disruptions can cascade throughout global networks.

For instance, in 2022, the war in Ukraine significantly affected global supply chains by disrupting essential air freight and shipping routes, leading to disruptions in the supply of raw materials and finished goods. Nearly half of surveyed companies reported that the conflict affected their operations.

Cyber threats represent another growing concern. According to the SANS Institute, there is a 70 percent chance that a cybersecurity incident will be caused by an organization's suppliers, and by 2025, Gartner predicts 45 percent of organizations worldwide will have experienced attacks on their software supply chains (a three-fold increase from 2021). A 2024 report by Data Theorem found that 91 percent of organizations experienced a software supply chain attack over the last year.

Infrastructure failures can also create sudden bottlenecks. The 2021 Suez Canal blockage by the container ship Ever Given demonstrated how a single point of failure could impact global trade, with over 300 vessels delayed and affecting roughly 12 percent of global trade. Lloyd's List estimated that the Suez Canal blockage held up approximately $9.6 billion worth of trade each day.

Events that have a very high impact on the market but have a very low probability of materialization—these black swan events—make short-term and long-term consequences hard to measure definitively. However, there are measures organizations can take that can help navigate risk across multiple threat categories.

Supply chain contingency plans as a top priority

According to Rich Schmidt, director of strategy and transformation at Publicis Sapient, organizations should start with scenario planning strategies, where different risk environments are considered across the entire supply chain. While different organizations face unique risks, companies should develop plans for both optimistic and worst-case situations:

• Optimistic scenario: Business continuity plans effectively mitigate most disruptions through high levels of international collaboration and technological integration.
• Worst-case scenario: Multiple concurrent disruptions (geopolitical conflicts, cyberattacks, supply shortages) create cascading failures across supply networks.

Mitigating supply chain shock

In the short term, companies can work with existing suppliers to create a business continuity plan. Businesses should identify suppliers in different regions to diversify the supply chain and safeguard against shortages, especially for products with longer supply cycles.

Buffer your business model with additional inventory

According to industry experts, organizations that have exposure to high-risk regions typically see longer spans between demand signals and delivery, often with 30, 60 or 90-day delays.

"In these situations, it's always important that your business model allows a buffer with additional inventory," says Schmidt.

Consider strategic sourcing approaches

Reshoring (bringing production back to the company's home country) and nearshoring (relocating production to neighboring countries) can help shorten supply chains, which in turn can safeguard companies from disruptions in international freight movement. However, the optimal approach depends on your industry, products and specific risk profile.

India and Vietnam are quickly becoming popular destinations for companies seeking to diversify away from China, attracting companies like Apple, which have been frustrated by product delays and are seeking to reduce their dependence on one country.

Protect against cyber disruptions

As supply chains become more digitized and interdependent, the attack surface has grown exponentially. Today, it’s not just about protecting a single system—it’s about securing a complex web of suppliers, logistics partners, cloud-based platforms and real-time data flows. That makes cybersecurity not just an IT issue but a supply chain continuity issue.

While basic protocols like security audits and employee training remain important, newer tools are helping companies detect and respond to threats faster. Zero Trust architectures are becoming standard across critical nodes, ensuring no user or device is trusted by default. AI-powered threat detection platforms like Microsoft Defender for IoT and CrowdStrike’s Falcon platform are now being deployed to monitor for unusual activity across operational technology (OT) environments—something traditional IT security tools can’t cover.

The biggest vulnerability today? Lack of visibility across third-party systems. Most breaches start with a compromised partner. That’s why the most critical step is mapping your digital supply chain—not just your direct suppliers, but their suppliers too—and identifying where sensitive data and access permissions flow. Once that’s clear, organizations can begin segmenting networks, automating patch management and putting real-time threat detection in place where it matters most.

The 2017 NotPetya cyberattack is a warning that still resonates. When malware crippled Maersk’s systems, disrupting port operations globally, it wasn’t a targeted attack—but the impact was immediate and massive: over $250 million in damages. As threats grow more sophisticated, businesses can’t afford to treat cybersecurity as an afterthought. It’s now a pillar of supply chain resilience.

Link data sets across your supplier network

Aggregating data from third-party partners allows visibility into movement across the supply chain network and can pinpoint potential roadblocks. For example, if inventory is delayed due to geopolitical issues at a border crossing, organizations can put contingency plans in place to address the issues and accelerate outcomes.

"Can you link your data sets from your supply and your demand across your internal network and across the supplier network?" Schmidt asks. "From there, you can then start measuring various scenarios and identifying where rapid intervention could be done."

Use digital twins to simulate demand and supply

In the longer term, companies would benefit from using enterprise digital twin solutions that can simulate demand and supply from end to end within and across the enterprise.

"Technologies that provide inventory visibility across the distribution network (e.g., distribution centers, stores, vendors, third-party providers and wholesale inventory) offer major benefits for flexibility and transparency to serve customers in the best way possible given supply limitation," Schmidt says.

In the short term, halting promotions, prioritizing products and building inventory reserves are practical ways to stabilize demand when supply is constrained by disruption. But these tactics are only part of the picture. The real differentiator is a company’s ability to sense demand shifts early, simulate scenarios and act on them quickly—before stockouts or surpluses ripple through the business.

That’s where advanced planning capabilities come in. Using real-time data, AI-powered forecasting and integrated planning tools, businesses can rapidly adjust to market shocks with more precision. When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices soaring, 55 percent of surveyed companies flagged energy costs as a major risk—yet the businesses with adaptive planning systems in place were able to rebalance sourcing and production to avoid complete shutdowns.

These kinds of disruptions aren’t going away. But the right tech-enabled response can turn volatility into competitive advantage.

Predict changes in consumer demand due to various factors

When companies face supply disruptions—experiencing higher materials costs, transportation delays or production limitations—profit margins typically decrease.

However, if retailers increase prices too heavily, they risk damaging relationships with consumers in the long run, according to Schmidt.

Logistical changes to improve operations or product offering updates can help businesses mitigate profit loss. In the medium term, companies should plan for a bullwhip effect to impact their business and their suppliers due to high volatility. They should link supply to consumer demand within the business and allow trusted suppliers to have full demand visibility.

Use AI demand planning tools

On a broader scale, AI/ML-based demand planning tools using big data should be leveraged to aggregate various metrics including weather patterns, economic indicators, social sentiment and consumer behavior trends, allowing for stronger predictive models in preparation for changes in consumer demand and overall supply chain management.

"New versions of established tools will play a critical role in helping supply chain managers have an ongoing view of potential risks and provide a framework to help take corrective actions to better serve their customers," Schmidt says.

Major disruptions can lead to breakdowns in communication and visibility, making it challenging for companies to assess the status of their inventory, production facilities and transportation routes. Investing in robust communication systems and backup protocols can help maintain operations during crisis periods.

Technologies like predictive analytics and AI can forecast potential disruptions and identify areas for improvement in the supply chain, guiding decision-making and risk mitigation strategies.

"Enable new processes to be developed with resilience in mind, with assistive intelligence technology along with the promise of a protective environment," Schmidt says.

Supply chains are being tested on every front—whether it’s a shortage of semiconductors, a spike in energy prices or a shipping delay caused by geopolitical tensions. While these disruptions differ in cause, the businesses that adapt fastest tend to have one thing in common: they’ve already invested in visibility, scenario planning and the ability to act on real-time data.

Publicis Sapient and Spinnaker SCA help companies do exactly that. With connected planning tools, AI-driven demand forecasting and real-time transportation visibility, businesses can simulate the impact of a strike, a tariff or a supplier shutdown—and re-route, re-source or reallocate inventory before the disruption hits. For example, Bodhi — an enterprise-scale agentic AI platform — helps teams model complex supply chain decisions and automate routine ones. Sapient Slingshot, another proprietary platform, enables faster development of the tools needed to adapt on the fly.

The goal isn’t to predict every disruption. It’s to be ready for them—so operations don’t grind to a halt every time the unexpected happens.